G20 Summit in Rio: What to Expect in the Shadow of Trump’s Return

The G20 summit kicks off on November 18 in Rio de Janeiro amid significant geopolitical shifts, including the recent U.S. election victory of Donald Trump. With Ukraine excluded for the second time since the start of the full-scale war, questions arise about how the summit will address the ongoing conflict and whether alternative peace plans might take center stage.

Ukraine and the G20

While Ukraine will not attend the summit, the event coincides with the symbolic 1,000th day of Ukraine’s resistance against Russian aggression. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed disappointment over Ukraine’s exclusion, urging the G20 to prioritize discussions on Russia’s war. He emphasized the importance of Ukraine’s participation in global peace-building efforts.

The G20, established in 1999 as a forum for addressing global economic crises, includes 19 major economies and the European Union, with the African Union recently joining. Despite its influence—accounting for 80% of global trade—the summit is primarily a platform for dialogue rather than binding decisions. Discussions on the Ukraine-Russia conflict are expected to feature prominently.

Putin’s Absence and Russia’s Representation

Russian President Vladimir Putin, though invited by Brazil’s President Lula da Silva, will not attend due to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant. Instead, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will represent Russia. This marks the third consecutive G20 summit Putin has skipped, all hosted by nations considered friendly to Moscow.

Putin’s decision reflects his concern over potential arrest in Brazil, a signatory to the Rome Statute, which obligates member states to detain him if he sets foot on their soil.

Competing Peace Initiatives

While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a peace formula at the 2022 G20 summit, this year’s meeting might highlight a competing proposal: the Sino-Brazilian “Friends of Peace” plan. This initiative reportedly advocates freezing the conflict, allowing Russia to retain occupied territories—an approach strongly criticized by Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s rumored efforts to form a contact group with Brazil, China, and India for peace talks with Russia have further fueled speculation. A recent call between Scholz and Putin, their first in nearly two years, adds weight to the possibility of backdoor negotiations at the Rio summit.

A Transition in U.S. Leadership

As President Joe Biden’s final G20 appearance, the summit offers leaders a last opportunity to engage with him on pressing issues. High-level meetings, including one with Chinese President Xi Jinping, are expected to address topics such as North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war.

Reports suggest that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may also use the summit to discuss unlocking $20 billion in frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration.

Limited Expectations for Ukraine

Experts caution against expecting concrete outcomes for Ukraine from the summit. Alexander Khara, an expert in foreign policy and security, noted that G20 declarations rarely include strong condemnations of Russia. With Trump poised to take office, global leaders are likely focused on his future policies toward Ukraine, Russia, and China.

Khara added that Ukraine must act quickly to secure remaining U.S. military aid before Trump’s administration potentially shifts its stance.

“If Trump halts support, Ukraine will need to persuade him to reconsider,” he said, highlighting the urgency of preparing for a potential pivot in U.S. foreign policy.

As the G20 convenes in Rio, the summit underscores the complex interplay of global diplomacy and domestic politics, with Ukraine’s future and the broader geopolitical landscape hanging in the balance.